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April 2017 – Running Tip P&L

Here is the summary as at 30th April 2017. The average stock tip has delivered 24% return Inception to date, with 88% of my 27 tips in profit. On an annualised basis the average tip is 366%.


Berkeley Energia, recent weakness in share price. Is it still a buy?

I covered Berkeley Energia (BKY) back in October 2016 and it has regrettably been one of my most disappointing tips since I started writing on this website. Back then I tipped the share at 48p with a target of 80p. As at today, May 14th 2017 the share price still sits around the tip price, at 51p. The share did actually react strongly through to the end of January 2017, touching an intra day high of 71p, since then the price has been on a downwards trend, reaching a low of 41p last week, despite rallying strongly again since. In this piece I take a look at what has happened since my initial tip and try to assess whether I still expect the Berkeley share price to go nuclear…

Basic stock technical analysis and charting techniques

Many traders rely solely on Technical analysis to give them the indicators they need to press the BUY or SELL button. As I outline in my Investment Approach, I do not place a huge reliance on technical analysis signals when making an investment decision, the simple reason being, technical analysis works until it doesn’t. In the long term the stock price always reverts back to the risked discounted cashflow generated by the company. In my view to make money from the stock market consistently a deep appreciation of the fundamentals is therefore required.

BKY Shares off 40% since recent high. MD Paul Atherley addresses in new video.

Soon to be uranium miner Berkely Energia shares have come off a fair bit since the recent intra day high of 71p in late January 2017. The shares are sharply trading down at 43p as I write, a 40% fall. CEO Paul Atherly explains the potential reason for the fall back in the price, i.e. inline with current Uranium spot price. He also goes on to explain why short term movements in spot price are perhaps irrelevant to the current valuation.

A dummies guide to spotting a PUMP AND DUMP on AIM

The AIM pump and dumps come in all shapes and sizes, from the well organised boiler room scheme scams to a very loose and decentralized pump. Many of the ‘pump and dumps’ now operate exclusively online rather than through the traditional cold calling method used during Mr Belfort’s heyday in the late 80s. I will focus today on the typical social media promoted pump and dump, which tend to be low level and unsophisticated, but that is not to say significant financial loss does not occur.

Understanding the rules and intent of Director Share Dealings

I’ve been meaning to put aside a section of the blog for regulatory topics. There is a lot of misconception in the smaller cap investment community around certain FCA and Stock Market rules. Some of the rules around Statutory Director Dealings, Prompt Release of Inside Information and Notifications of Substantial Shareholder Interests can be complicated and hence are frequently misunderstood amongst retail investors.

I’ll start by covering Director Dealing, prompted by a twitter debate yesterday I had with a few people on this topic.

How to avoid compulsive portfolio monitoring. Making use of Price Alerts, RNS Alerts, Limit Orders and Stop Losses

One of the things I have started to finally perfect in my 10th year in the stock market is just checking into my portfolio 1-2 times a day. This is still too much in my opinion but this is way down from the 15-20 times a day I used to check during the early years. Why is this so important? I share four handy ways that can reduce the time you spend in front of your share portfolio and hopefully lead you to make better trades…

Barclays CEO reprimanded over treatment of whistleblower. Bonus is cut, but is this enough?

Barclays (BARC) is no stranger to controversy after being mired over the last decade in one scandal after another, PPI, Forex and LIBOR rigging are the most recent to bring the bank into disrepute. The company though added another to list after updating the market this morning to advise that the bank and CEO Jes Staley were under investigation by both the FCA and Prudential Regulation Authority (PRA) over the culture and controls in place around whistleblowing disclosures.

Gym Group Flexes Biceps to secure maiden Profits. Buy on this news?

Gym Group (GYM) has been on my watchlist for well over a year, at which point it seemed a very expensive valuation for a company struggling to break even. The share price though has been slowly been falling back after this period of punching well above its weight. The company recently reported an impressive set of final results for 2016, making its maiden profit since IPO, so is it now time to take another look?

Hurricane Energy – Fantastic year but still plenty of potential

I covered Hurricane Energy (HUR.L) shortly after the Lancaster Pilot hole flow test in September 2016, tipping the shares at 38p with a BUY target of 55p. This initial share price target was reached last week, returning investors 45% in just shy of 7 months. There has been plenty of positive newsflow in the past few months, so I take a look at what has happened since my first tip and whether I believe there is further upside due from here.

San Leon Energy – Nigeria delays give rise to a funding concern

It has been an interesting year at San Leon Energy (SLE.L). After many years of struggling to create value from its existing asset base the company did a fairly impressive Nigerian deal in the summer of 2016. After a period of bedding down it emerged late in 2016 that San Leon was subject to a potential takeover from a mystery Chinese bidder and at a fairly sizable premium to the share price at the time. So the signals from San Leon towers were looking very promising indeed, I had hence rated this as a ‘BUY’ in both my previous posts. It has though gone very quiet from San Leon since the excitement of late 2o16 and we have so far had no formal update on the potential deal in the first two months of 2017. We did though get an operations update in the thick of ‘bury news’ season, on 3oth January 2016. In today’s piece I take a look at that Operations update and consider whether there was indeed bad news to bury and if so whether my BUY view on San Leon should change.

URU Metals, proceed with caution

It is pleasing to see investors making some serious money on AIM, the last 12 months on the junior market have been the most bullish I can recall for sometime. Today I take a closer look at a recent ten bagger, URU Metals. The company has raced ahead over 1000% in since November and a the placing yesterday at a premium has sent the shares sharply higher. Today I take a look at whether investors should take caution or continue to pile in?

Sirius Minerals, remains a compelling long term investment.

I covered Sirius Minerals (SXX) in a piece here in 2016, tipping the stock at 38p with a target to sell at 50p. When I wrote the piece I expected the 50p target to take at least 12 months to reach. The stock though raced ahead just two days later when it hit an intraday high of 52.5p. The company closed its financing for the project late in 2016 and rather disappointingly for longer term holders the stock trades hands today for just 18p, less than half of it recent highs and even 10% below the recent placing price.

Letter to Ovoca Gold Directors regarding lack of progress and share price performance.

I previously tipped Ovoca Gold in 2016 due to the extraordinary discount of its liquid assets vs. its market capitalisation, you can read the piece here. A number of shareholders, both current and past have since contacted me to express their disappointment in management, more specifically management’s lack of engagement with shareholders and consequently a share price languishing at a steep discount to fair value. During the same period the disconnect between these liquid assets has widened further, based on my calculations the market’s valuation is now just 1/3rd of the total liquid assets, i.e. £7m versus combined cash and shares in Polymetal of £19.6m.